meek-investor

OK - the title is pure hyperbole. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is going nowhere. But the company that owns NYSE is just being bought over. The curious part of the story is that the acquirer does not really want the NYSE, but it comes as part of the package- so he has to take it ! Here's the deal. NYSE is part of a conglomerate called NYSE Euronext. The conglomerate consists of NYSE itself, Euronext, which is a combination of three European stock exchanges and Liffe which is a London based derivatives exchange. NYSE and Euronext are ugly spinsters nobody wants. The beauty amongst the beasts is Liffe. For it is the sexy new hottie - a derivatives exchange. And therein lies the story. In the modern day casino , that is finance , equity exchanges like NYSE are worthless as businesses. Margins are supposedly low. Stock exchanges are the places where almost all companies that require capital list and that's where investors channel their savings into productive investment. One w...

Somebody has to say this. Like the kid from the proverbial Hans Christian Andersen's tale , who exclaims that the emperor is actually naked, I will go ahead and say it. Stock markets have become a weapon of mass destruction. The original purpose of stock markets was to become efficient allocators of capital. Capital was always scarce and economics needed a mechanism where capital would be pooled from investors and allocated to the most efficient users of capital. Voila, the stock market was born. It is important to remember why this mechanism was created in the first place. One of the most important benefits that stock markets provided was liquidity. Investors needed liquidity to be able to withdraw their investment without affecting the company that they invested in. Contrast this with property markets which are not very liquid - try selling a property, especially in India. Liquidity was , and is, provided in stock markets by speculators. They performed the useful function of ensu...

It is a fundamental tenet of capitalism that an investor should be fully informed of all matters relating to his investment. Over the years, regulatory authorities have been increasing disclosure requirements so that there is as much transparency as possible. But has this gone too far ? And has the overreaching legal recourses, especially in the US, led to the purpose being defeated ? No this is not a boring, dry post. Read on. Take the case of Manchester United's IPO filing (if you ask what Manchester United is, I'll clobber you). IPO filers are required to disclose the risks associated with their business. Fair enough. But look at Man U's risks disclosed. They have listed 51 risks. Amongst them are such gems as There could be a decline in the popularity of football (beggars belief)  To service our indebtedness, we require cash, and our ability to generate cash is subject to many factors beyond our control. ( Ha Ha) We are dependent upon the performance and popularity of o...

You couldn't have missed the public fury over the Facebook IPO, over the last week, even if you not economically inclined !  Facebook was a darling before the IPO - great company, stratospheric valuations, etc etc, which this blogger has been heartily against. But now after the IPO , Facebook is a pariah, it botched up the IPO, lawsuits threatened, etc etc. This time this blogger is completely on the side of Facebook and totally flummoxed by the public reaction. What is the main charge ?  Facebook's price did not shoot up 10 times after the IPO. Instead it has declined by some 16% or so, over the IPO price, in the first week. The company has committed sacrilege. Really ?? Who are the moaners and bleaters. The punters who bought in the IPO wanting to sell on the first day after listing and make a 5000% profit. Please tell me why the company has any obligations to these greedy leeches ? What economic activity have these speculators done (never mind that in this lot might be Oreg...

"Company X crushes estimates; Shares Soar" screams the headlines in Forbes ,  a respected business magazine. "Company X profits slip 35% as spending continues"  proclaims the equally loud headlines of The Wall Street Journal , a respectable business newspaper. Both refer to the same company - Amazon - and the same piece of news, the first quarter results of the company. Flummoxed ?? Read on. Can both headlines be right ?? Surely they can't.  Only in the rarified world of finance , especially the even more ionospheric world of stock markets can both statements be true. Yes. You see, company performance and movement of share prices is based on "expectations" and not on reality. Expectations of whom, you may ask ?  Of a unique sub species of the human race called homo sapiens analystensis (hereinafter referred to as HSA). Cut to business school. Some of the best brains in the land want to "go into finance" after they graduate. Their ambition is ...

A terrible decision for the company and its founder. A great decision for everybody else. Welcome to the crazy world of private equity. Facebook needs an IPO like a hole in the head. It doesn't need the money. The only possible use it has for it is to pay off some tax liabilities being triggered by doing an IPO. Most of the money is going to be invested in US government bonds - impeccable logic of raising expensive equity and investing in bonds that yield nothing. The business itself is a cash spewing machine - it doesn't need more cash. On the contrary it doesn't know what to do with th cash already being generated. Actually the risk when too much cash is sloshing around is that the Board will go and make a stupid headline grabbing acquisition. Mark Zuckerberg doesn't want to do an IPO either. He doesn't need the "valuation" to prove to everybody that he is rich. He's going to lose every autonomy he had in running the business - now he has to pander t...

As stock markets fell on Monday there was the predictable response from governments. Take for example the Indian Finance Minister. He says "we are prepared to address any concern that may arise on account of the present situation".  He should do no such thing. Stock markets should not drive government policy. Have you noticed that the bleating and braying is all one sided. When markets are rising, nobody wants the government within one million miles of their trying to fill their pockets as fast as possible. When markets are falling , governments should come and "help them". Nonsense. Just as stock markets fell, you see the price of gold skyrocketing. I am yet to hear anybody express concern on where that market is heading. For that matter, why be only concerned about stock markets ? Why not debt markets. Or, as above, gold markets. Or platinum markets. Or whatever. Governments should simply adopt the right economic policy for the long term. Of course, they have to r...

Vanity thy name is Chinese Internet Company, went the title of an earlier post of mine here . I should correct this now to Vanity thy name is Chinese Internet Company. How else can you explain the rush of Chinese non Internet companies who want to list in the US ? There are 900 companies with businesses mainly, or only, in China listed in the US. Compared to that there are only some 2000 odd companies listed on the Chinese mainland. Does this make any sense ? Why are Chinese companies falling over each other to list in the US ? Usual reasons - Greed and Vanity. Greed first. Anything beginning with the letter C is now hot in the US. Never mind that the investor does not know, or care, whether China is to the East or West of Topeka KS. Anything even remotely related to China must be leading to a pot of gold. Hence the stampede towards China stocks. A scene reminiscent of the wildebeest crossing the Mara river. The expert analysts, investors, fund managers all seem to possess exactly the...

Why does a Chinese internet company wish to get listed in the US ? I can't fathom the logic. Hence this post. The Chinese internet landscape is a strange one. Almost every one of the global majors is blocked. Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Blogger, you name it and it is blocked. Instead there is a carbon copy of each one of them locally in Chinese. For Google, read Baidu . For Facebook, read Renren , for YouTube read Youku or Tudou , for Twitter read Sina Weibo or the dozens of similar clones. These are the ones that are wildly popular, having millions of users, only in Chinese and therefore almost exclusively used by Chinese. Never mind that these  are all censored , watched, bullied, etc etc by the jīndùn gōngchéng (The Great Firewall). This post is not about that cursed censorship. These sites are all by entrepreneur led start up companies , similar to the American originals.  And they all want to list and make huge money. Fair enough. But they seem to want to list in the U...

Prada, the Italian fashion group, is reportedly going to seek a listing in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Nothing electric about this, except that you would have thought that they would list in Milan. European fashion houses are ,well, snootishly European. So the move to list in Hong Kong does raise eyebrows. This is the magic of China. As even a casual visitor to China knows, every brand is ruthlessly copied and pirated on a big scale. You can easily buy any fashion brand, indistinguishable from the original, perhaps even made in the same factory as the original, at one hundredth the price. Despite this, every fashion house's fortunes these days are driven by demand in Asia, chiefly from China. The nouveau riche in China like to spend. And spend on outrageously priced brands which you can then flaunt. There's a certain pleasure into walking into a room of Prada wearers and knowing that everybody elses is a fake and yours is the real thing. Flaunt your original. But if your main...

Imagine a company which was for decades a byword in inefficiency. It pollutes like hell. It has 400,000 workers, none of whom can be sacked, although it needs far fewer. Most of the places it operates in are rife with insurgency, where the government's writ doesn't run very deep. Corruption is endemic. Technology is antiquated. There's a mafia which operates almost exclusively thanks to its presence. It struggles to transport its production to its customers. Governments set prices, allocate stocks and fix wages - not the market. You get the drift ? Now this company wants to sell its stock to you. You would run a million miles. Right?? Wrong ! You actually fall over yourself in trying to invest in its stock. Welcome to the crazy world of stock markets. The company, is Coal India. It is a government owned monopoly that has been around for decades and for most of that period was of dubious financial capability. And yet, for the last few days, everybody around me seems to be ...

In the rarified world of Private Equity, the firm of Kohlberg, Kravis and Roberts occupies a special place. KKR, as the firm is called, achieved legendary status very early on in its life. The firm came into existence in 1976, but its real fame and notoriety came in 1988, when it orchestrated the largest leveraged buyout of that time, the hostile acquisition of RJR Nabisco. The RJR Nabisco transaction was a definitive moment in business history. It was so huge that at that time it was by far the largest M&A transaction that was ever done – a position that it occupied for more than a decade. Adjusted for inflation, it is still the largest leveraged buyout ever. The story has been immortalized in the best selling book, Barbarians at the Gate . The book reads like a thriller - you can buy it here or here ; it’s a classic must read book. The madness of 1988 was covered in my post here , sometime ago. From that day on, KKR has come to epitomize all the public perceptions of private e...

Last Thursday, something peculiar happened in the US stock markets. The markets were jittery due to the unfolding crisis in Greece. The market was down by some 1.5% or so , but nothing extraordinary. Then at 2.32 PM something happened. It started falling steeply. By 2.42 PM it had fallen by 3.9%. By 2.47 the bottom had fallen out; in 5 minutes the index fell another 5.5%.By 2.49 it went back up by 5%. Nobody knows what happened. Multiple theories abound. Hacking or terrorist activity have been ruled out. The rumour that a trader keyed in a trade in P&G shares for billions instead of millions by mistake has also not been borne out. The SEC is still investigating. What triggered the fall is not clear, but what happened next is certain. A lot of trading is computer driven these days. When something happens there are automatic triggers to buy or sell. When the first fall happened, it triggered an avalanche of computer generated trades. Hence the free fall. These days competitive advan...

A curious side show to the Alcon deal that I blogged about in my previous post is the treatment of minority shareholders. You may recall that Novartis bought 52% of the shareholding in Alcon, from Nestle, at $180 per share in cash. It had already held 25% bought from Nestle earlier. So it now has 77%. The balance 23% is held by minority shareholders as Alcon is listed in the US. Novartis has now offered $153 dollars to the minority shareholders, in its own shares (not cash as was paid to Nestle). The minority shareholders are crying foul. Alcon is a Swiss based company and dictated by Swiss Corporate law. Swiss law does not require minority shareholders to be paid the same amount as the majority shareholders in an acquisition. Most other countries in the world have this provision. Switzerland does not. That’s why Novartis can do what its trying to do. On first glance this would seem to be an abuse of minority shareholder rights. But wait a moment. Its not so black and white. The “min...

Since the beginning of the year, the prices of all sorts of risky assets – shares, oil, etc have increased by fantastic proportions. Take equity. In virtually any market in the world, you would have made returns of 50% plus, even if you are an idiot. Did somebody say we were in the midst of a huge crisis ? Here was massive money to be made, by just being there. Sounds too good to be true ?? As the old saying goes, when something is too good to be true, it usually is. I read a very interesting article by Nouriel Roubini , the highly respected Professor from New York’s Stern School of Business, in today’s Financial Times. Its somewhat technical, although very readable. I commend even a layman to read this. At the risk of extreme oversimplification, I will paraphrase his argument as follows - Interest rates are extremely low and will be maintained at very low levels by the US Fed to stimulate the economy - The dollar is falling. Because it is falling, everybody is short selling the doll...

Yes that’s right. Lehman brothers. The same company that went bankrupt. You could have made a profit of 600% in a couple of months. Welcome to the insanity that sometimes grips markets. And trust the finance world to dignify the madness with a high sounding name. Its called the “lottery ticket rally” . Lehman Brothers shares were languishing at 5 cents for most of the year. Last week, they touched 32 cents. If you bought at 5 and sold at 32 , you could have multiplied your money 6 times. They ended the week at 14 cents. Even if you missed the 32 and sold at 14, you multiplied your money a respectful 3 times. Never mind the underlying economics. Big parts of Lehman’s erstwhile businesses have been bought by Barclays and Nomura. What’s left is all sorts of losses being unwound. Most certainly the rump left has negative net worth. By all laws of economics their shares must be worth nothing. And there’s nothing secretive about this – the travails of Lehman have been well documented. And y...

There’s something immoral about sitting on your butt and making a lot of money as against working your socks off and making less money. I find it difficult to reconcile to this. The Indian stock market has exploded in the last five months. Its gone up by 50%. Popular perception is that its because of the euphoria of the elections throwing up a stable government, which was unexpected. But as Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar notes in his very well written article in the Times of India , the rise has little to do with the elections. Global money which had retreated shellshocked into US gilts is pouring out again into stock markets. Some $ 20 bn has gone into emerging markets since April. China’s stock market has gone up by 57%, Russia by 63%, Brazil by 60%, Argentina by 45%. India is not alone, by any means. And no wonder, the rupee is strengthening again, if there’s so much dollar inflow. I think, as a society, we have learnt little from the financial crisis, we are right in the middle of....